عنوان پایان‌نامه
نقش زمان در ریسک گریزی افراد
- رشته تحصیلی
- علوم اقتصادی
- مقطع تحصیلی
- کارشناسی ارشد
- محل دفاع
- کتابخانه دانشکده اقتصاد شماره ثبت: 1621;کتابخانه مرکزی -تالار اطلاع رسانی شماره ثبت: 66205
- تاریخ دفاع
- ۲۹ بهمن ۱۳۹۱
- دانشجو
- میترا واشقانی فراهانی
- استاد راهنما
- جعفر عبادی
- چکیده
- امروزه با وجود نااطمینانی ،تصمیم گیری به عوامل مختلفی بستگی دارد.دراین پژوهش مطلوبیت تابعی از مصرف در نظر گرفته می شود و در سه گروه سنی ترجیحات ریسکی مورد توجه قرار می گیرد تا مشخص شود افراد در هر دوره ای از زندگیشان چه ترجیحات ریسکی دارند. برای تحلیل ترجیحات ریسکی چهار مرحله بخت آزمایی با مبالغ کم و زیاد برگزار می شود و عکس العمل افراد در هر مرحله مورد بررسی قرار می گیرد.فریدمن و سویج در سال 1948 تابع مطلوبیت را تابعی از درآمد در نظر گرفته اند و بیان می کنند که افراد در ابتدا تابع مطلوبیت مقعر و سپس محدب و دوباره تابعی مقعر دارند.حال اگر بپذیریم که تقعر منحنی مطلوبیت می تواند ریسک گریزی را توضیح دهد ، یعنی طبق گفته فریدمن و سویج افراد در درآمد پایین ریسک گریز هستند و با افزایش درآمد ریسک پذیر می شوند و در درآمدهای قابل توجه دوباره ریسک گریز می شوند.در این مطالعه افرادی که در گروه سنی 40 – 25 قرار دارند نسبت به سنین بالاتر و پایین تر جامعه آماری ریسک گریزتر هستند یعنی افراد در ابتدا و قبل از 25 سالگی ریسک پذیر هستند و سپس ریسک گریز می شوند و پس از سن 40 سالگی مجدد ریسک پذیر می شوند.در نتیجه افراد ابتدا تابع مطلوبیت محدب و سپس مقعر دارند و در درآمد های قابل توجه در سنین بالا تابع مطلوبیتی محدب دارند.
- Abstract
- Nowadays in spite of uncertainty, the process of decision making for the consumer depends on various factors. Perhaps income and wealth are not the two factors which can explain satisfaction for the individuals and may cause different reactions under different circumstances. Income and wealth per se do not create utility and satisfaction unless the individual rejoices only with feeling the money in his or her hands. These two factors have to go through a process in order to give a person satisfaction. This process is the same as consumption. The motivated individual acts to earn income that by spending it in the consumption process acquires utility. Of course it is important to note that if there is no income, there is no consumption. In this study we investigate the reactions of individuals to the uncertainty in different ages and circumstances. To create different circumstances lotteries were held with small and large stakes to judge individual reactions and with supplementary questions to identify the effective factors to these reactions. We considered for example, two factors, age and expenditure. We want to study individuals in a different ages produce which reactions. The method which has been used in this study is almost the same as Johansson – Stenman , 2009, “Risk aversion and expected utility of consumption over time”, Department of Economics, university of Gothenburg. According to this paper, utility results from individual consumption in a lifetime whereas before this in a various papers utility has been resulted from income or wealth. The third part presents some points about Friedman and Savage, Johansson-Stenman, Cox, J.C. Sadiraj. The fourth part presents a brief explanation about utility function. The offered utility function is the same as Johansson-Stenman. In order to test individual behavior in a risky condition four stages of lotteries. In each stage, samples encounter new situation and their reaction is investigated in each lottery are held. In 2002 Holt and Laury56 held some lotteries with low and high payoffs and have analysed risk aversion. In this part the aim of lotteries will be explain in detail. In the fifth section obtained results from these lotteries are surveyed briefly. Generally speaking, in this experimental test there are a few people who are relatively less risk taker. In this part subjects are separated into three age groups of 19-24, 25-40 and 41-67 and the risky attitude of individuals in regard to the proportion of selection for option A (lottery as well as with less-risk) are analyzed regarding risk aversion in Arrow and Pratt57 coefficients (these coefficients use the utility function which has been defined based on consumption factor). The sixth part represents the results of study and explains individuals with positive saving who so income is sufficient to cover the consumption being proportional to other individuals who are more risk averse. The appendix part contains two sections. In the first one, represents process of writing a program for calculating parameters that are necessary with Matlab software. In the second one, at first, supplementary questionnaire in three sheets are represented and then answers of participations in separate tables are shown. Next, represents papers of four-stages lottery are represented and how individuals selections and then how much they win as gain in different stages in tables for everyone represented briefly.
